Sorry as someone who teaches rhetoric this is a wonderful response to the Paradox of Tolerance. I cannot tell you how many times my students have had debates about this. This is the response. This does indeed fix it. I cannot wait to tell this to my classes now. Philosophically and rhetorically this completely resolved the Paradox of Tolerance and I am floored by its simplicity and angry I never saw it before.
Yearly Reminder that C.S Lewis encouraged his fans to write fanfiction about Susan Pevensie becoming a friend to Narnia and reuniting with her family once again.
Literally inviting his fans to write Susan’s adult, angsty character development with a happy ending.
feeling fucking emotions about extinct animals right now. thylacines were an incredibly unique and remarkable animal. they were targeted for the deaths of sheep they didn’t kill. benjamin died from exposure when someone forgot to open the door to her indoor enclosure at night. imo dodos were the most fascinating pigeon there was. the last one watched the ships in the harbour and brooded a nest of eggs that would never hatch. ivory-billed woodpeckers were the size of crows and referred to as the lord god bird. the singer company and chicago mill and lumber co were greedy enough that they drove them to extinction. passenger pigeons were so plentiful that flocks of them could block out the sky for days. martha lived thirty years in a barren cage. carolina conures were the only parrot native to north america and one of the only poisonous birds in the world. rich people wanted feathers in their hats, so they killed every last one. the last one, incas, died in the same enclosure that martha died in. they were all preserved and mounted as taxidermy. the last of a species is called an endling.
Nothing makes me want to call math fake as much as the Monty Hall problem. Not even 0.999999… equaling 1. Yes I understand the proof yes it technically makes sense but I just hate the Monty Hall problem so, so much.
Is that the game show one with the doors?
Correct. The basic scenario is that there is a car behind one door and a goat behind two doors, and you don’t know which is which but the game show host does. If you pick the door with the car, you win the car. The host let’s you pick a door, then opens one of the two doors you didn’t pick, revealing a goat. The host then offers you one last chance to switch your pick from your original door to the other remaining closed door.
The Monty Hall problem states that you should always switch your pick, and that by doing so you will double your chances of winning the car.
Which, intuitively, that’s nonsense. Your choice has no actual impact on the reality of the situation. You’re guessing blindly the same as before, it’s just now that you have a one-in-two chance of guessing the right door instead of a one-in-three chance.
EXCEPT
During your first round of choosing, you had a 1/3 chance of guessing the car vs a 2/3 chance of guessing a goat, if you were only allowed that one guess. But once it’s narrowed down to two doors, one with a goat and one with a car, you’re now guaranteed to get the exact opposite outcome of what your original guess would have been if you switch. So if you stick with your first choice, you still have a 1/3 chance of getting the car and 2/3 chance of getting a goat. But if you switch, then suddenly that becomes a 1/3 chance of getting a goat, and a 2/3 chance of getting the car.
It’s bullshit and I hate it so much.
I understand it but i hate it, like the maths is right but logically it just doesn’t click
The trick to it is that you’re technically playing two games in a row, and the second one is the only one that you actually have to win.
In the first game, you have two chances to lose (picking a goat) and once chance to win (picking a car). Worse-than-even odds. But the important thing is, you don’t actually get a prize for winning this first game. It’s just set-up for the second one.
In the second game, sticking with your door is basically saying “I think I made a lucky guess in the first game, I’m sticking with that decision.” Switching doors is saying “I don’t think I got lucky in the first round, so I’m going to change my decision.” You are gambling on whether you won or lost the first game, and what wins or loses you the prize is guessing correctly whether you were lucky in the first game. And because the odds of the first game were worse-than-even, guessing that you lost the first game is the safer bet, because you probably weren’t lucky.
The really painful part of it is that our brains want to interpret it all as one game, where you’ve basically got 50/50 odds no matter what you do. That’s what our every instinct is screaming at us should be happening, because the physical endgame is two closed doors, only one of them with something we want behind it, which has been there from the start. But it isn’t one game with 50/50 odds. It’s two games in a trenchcoat, and their combined odds are skewed.
“You are gambling on whether you won or lost the first game” is in fact the only time the Monty Hall problem has ever made even a shadow of sense to me, and I think you should get an honorary PhD in math or maybe philosophy for writing it down.
That’s actually very flattering, especially considering how long I’ve wrestled with this thing, thank you.
In most cases you don’t need to wash your clothes with hot water. Heating the water takes up almost 90% of the energy expenditure of a washing machine. Most detergents nowadays don’t even need high temperatures and work fine in the cold. It’s better for your wallet and the environment.
At home I wash separately a colder wash for the normal clothes and a hot wash for discloths, towels and underwear and such due to the germs you want killed in there. Your jeans and t shirts don’t need to be washed in hot water and they will last longer cold. However, your underwear and cleaning rags absolutely do.
Also: if you hang stuff outside in the sun this will work to kill all sorts of bacteria and protects against mildew. The sun is a natural antiseptic 🌞
my mom said her sister would insult people by calling them bird names such as “yellow-bellied sapsucker” and “red-headed woodpecker” (last one reserved for people with red hair)
i’ve never heard of satanic nightjars before and now i’m obsessed with them
they’re like if someone tried to draw an adorable screech owl and fucked up really bad but it still ended up looking cute
I had what turned out to be a dangerous walking pneumonia, for a week, but the manager at Burger King wouldn’t let me off. My breathing was very loud and ragged. I was coughing on and breathing on the food.
I wasn’t allowed to leave. I was told if i called out, I was fired.
So Im shuffling around wheezing loudly swaying with my high fever as I work drive thru by myself, and a paramedic walked in to order dinner.
He goes ballistic, My friends. He demands to see the Manager. he chews him out at the top of his lungs so the whole restaurant can here. Guys working the back came up to watch. Customers staring and thinking hard about the infectious food they were eating. Dude losing his shit about how infectious I was and all the people management had been endangering for days judging from my breathing and I needed to be home on antibiotics RIGHT NOW and the health Department was going to hear about this.
I went home. i got the week off. Didn’t even need a doctor’s note.
Getting friends management doesn’t know to do this WOULD WORK.
Same manager not letting me take my influenza home a year later despite repeated vomiting? Threw up in front of customers. Customers demanded money back and started threatening the manager with lawsuits.
I got to go home and got time off until I stopped vomitting.
GO AHEAD and THROW UP in front of Customers. THEY will Complain.
Don’t be shy.
They are supposed to let you stay home when you are sick. Stop protecting management. (Hiding how sick you are protects management). They are abusing you. Let them reap what they sow.
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